Will the four-year compass break?
This second edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint from Checkonchain and Unchained analyzes how bitcoin market structure has changed in the 2025–26 and why the bear arrived on schedule—but the bull may not.
What’s in the report?
A closer look at the downturn that followed bitcoin's $126k all-time high—why it happened, what's already played out, and where the floor likely forms.
Why good old-fashioned spot sell-side pressure slayed the 2025 bull
How two back-to-back capitulation events flushed out price-sensitive top buyers
Why the True Market Mean has replaced the Realised Price as the true investor pain threshold
How nearly 2.0M BTC have rotated from top buyers to holders between $60k and $80k year-to-date
How the extraordinary ETFs held through a -52% drawdown, with outflows just 9.7% of cumulative inflows
The latest bear market analysis and outlook from Checkonchain
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